We have just celebrated the arrival of 2010 and there is a lot of debate and discussion about the world’s economic recovery. Obviously as various countries and economies have experienced differing levels of economic down turns and crisis, the extent of recoveries is connected as well.

During my recent visit to Beijing I attended an interesting presentation by Stephen Joske, the Director of the China Forecasting Service of the Economist Intelligence Unit. During his introduction he informed the audience of the variety of recovery versions, which we may witness this year, not just in China, but equally in the West. Such as the U, the V or the W type recovery that may occur within economies around the world.
In respect to China, Stephen Joske confirmed that the country is experiencing a healthy ‘V’ recovery, with a strong possibility of exceeding a GDP growth of 8 percent this year. Even with parts of China, such as the province of Tianjin already enjoying a GDP of 12 percent, which is based on government infrastructure investment in the port area of Bin Hai, Stephen believes that by 2020, China may experience a levelling out of its GDP reducing to around 4 percent.
I hear and read of extensive positive discussion in respect to China’s speedy recovery compared to most of the other economies. China certainly deserves the accolades it receives, but then the Chinese economy never got as sick as the West, because of totally different political and cultural realities.
Then we have the flurry of political and media statements in Australia and the West about various actual or perceived recoveries. Personally I prefer to focus on the up side rather then the down side. Yet I believe there is an important aspect missing relating to the many discussions about the economic recoveries by the politicians, the press and the statistical presentations by economists. When analysing the recovery, no one so far has clarified a ‘recovery to where or what level’.
Do we really want to get back to the fat economies and the obese levels of corporations in the West of only 18 months ago? Or a China and India GDP growth of 8 percent plus? I am yet to hear and learn of what is a national and or global sustainable GDP growth, backed by statistical realities. Maybe the Year of the Tiger will provide the answers. ■

Carl Jetter,
Publisher